RealForecasts.com is a website and blog based upon the belief that changes in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve System’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the resulting rate of change of the U.S. Base Money, Commercial and Consumer Lending and the Money Supply can be used as leading indicators to accurately forecast changes in the economy, the real estate leasing and capital markets and the markets for other real assets. The methodology underlying these forecasts is based upon the Austrian Business Cycle Theory.
Most pension plans, real estate consultants and real estate investment managers don’t dedicate the same resources attempting to forecast trends in the real estate capital markets as they do attempting to forecast trends in the economy and the real estate leasing markets. The reason for this is unclear.
Some may view these forecasts as unnecessary to an investment management platform based upon a relative return strategy. “We’re not market timers”, they say. Of course, they don’t have to be market timers to have an awareness of — and opinion about — the direction of the real estate capital markets and strategies for dealing with alternative market scenarios should they arise.
Others may view the direction of the real estate capital markets as unknowable and attempts to forecast trends as a waste of valuable resources. “No one could have seen this coming”, they say about the Financial Crisis of 2008 and The Great Recession that followed. Of course, that’s not true. Many saw it coming — especially proponents of Austrian Business Cycle Theory. Regrettably, the most vocal of these were met with disbelief and derision.
In any case, accurately forecasting trends in the economy, the real estate leasing markets and the real estate capital markets will allow real estate investors to more successfully manage their way through the inevitable ups and downs of the real estate cycle. This, in turn, will lead to superior investment performance – whether they are following a diversified relative-return investment strategy or a concentrated absolute-return strategy.
About Jeff Peshut
Jeff provides real estate investors with professional strengths in all facets of the institutional real estate investment management process including transaction management (acquisition, disposition, financing and marketing and leasing), asset management and portfolio management. He’s developed special expertise in market research and forecasting, valuation and hold-sell analysis.
He also offers real estate investors a track record of demonstrated success building and leading high-performing portfolio management, asset management and leasing and management teams within an institutional real estate investment management environment.
Jeff serves on the Board of Trustees for Clayton Early Learning (www.claytonearlylearning.org) and currently serves as the Chair of the Finance, Investment and Real Estate Committee.
He holds a Bachelor of Science in Finance and a Juris Doctorate, both from the University of Illinois in Champaign-Urbana, IL.